Nifty, Crafty & Shifty: The Versatile EJ Montgomery

There’s been a lot discussion recently about the unsigned EJ Montgomery, a nifty power forward originally from Fort Pierce, Florida that reopened his commitment after scandal broke out at Auburn. His decommitment will certainly hamper Bruce Pearl’s chances to get the door named after him.

You can bet your unapproved cookout polaroids that this decommitment stung, primarily because of Montgomery’s combination of ball skills and size. There’s a lot to like, with plenty of areas for growth, and areas could greatly affect what ends up happening in EJ’s career.

Let’s get right to it.

A CURIOUS BLEND

As we’ve alluded to twice, Montgomery is a long fella. More specifically, he’s 6’10” with a 7’2″ wingspan and he weighs a wispy 200 pounds, which is likely the necessity that caused his game to be as slippery and crafty as it is.

EJ is one of those prospects who was documented early. He’s from a basketball family. There’s a ton of footage of him the seventh and eighth grades, where he was rated as the #1 player in his class. He’s come down the board a few slots since then, but he’s still considered a top 10 player by most services. I say that to emphasize that he’s been under the microscope for a while and continued to get better.

Other than being comically bigger than everyone else on the floor, it was clear here at any early age that EJ was uniquely skilled for a guy his size. Playing away from the basket, he’s comfortable, and this is extremely evident in up-and-down situations like AAU or less execution-driven environments. His handle is fluid and steady, especially for someone likely to play the four, at least at the college level.

CAN HE KICK IT? YES HE CAN.

Montgomery ‘s court vision and awareness are particularly good (say it with me!) for his size. Sensing double-teams, sensing where he is on the floor, baiting defenders into committing to his drives… he has a high IQ for these types of situations, and that makes him a tough cover. He’s a sleepy, slippery, gliding/coasting type of athlete that can be hard to read, and thus hard to guard. This is also heightened by his steadiness with the ball. He’s a rare stretch four that throws in a healthy dose of court vision.

Both of these passes are so quick and on the money that the frame rate almost doesn’t capture them. Got that 120Hz vision.

Another example of the shiftiness.

With shooters around him, he’s devastating. This one is (Borat voice) very nice.

Imagining Montgomery on the floor with other high-level college players is really intriguing to think about, because of how much of his game will open up with other great scorers. It’s more than just kick-outs from the post, too…

In the high-low, where I think he could really hurt teams in the future, from either spot.

STROKE AIN’T BROKE

Listening to EJ talk, he seems to think of himself as a stretch four, and he’s correct. A lot of times when you see guys of his size that have great vision, they’re lacking as shooters. Not the case with Montgomery. You see him taking a lot more trips away from the basket when he’s playing with the Atlanta Celtics as opposed to high school team in Wheeler, Georgia. Either way, the mechanics are nice, and the release is quick.

His potential to grow as a midrange shooter flattening out in the pick-and-roll is also promising.

He has a tendency to float off of his spot when he’s shooting off the dribble in the midrange, but he hits the shot at a pretty consistent clip.

MOTOR NEEDS A LITTLE REVVING

For all of EJ’s talents, he’s not without room to grow. After watching a few extended stretches of tape, it does seem that he can become a bit disengaged on defense, and suddenly come to life on offense. Not unique for young players.

Watching as he sees his teammate lose position and not even attempting a weakside contest (this is in a regional championship game).

Again watching a driver go baseline and not rotating down.

Semi-interested in hedging against the ball handler.

Getting lost in transition and losing a great shooter.

Granted, EJ is his team’s best player and they need him to be on the floor. That said, attention to detail, footwork, and overall motor/activity on defense will need to improve for Montgomery to really excel at the next level. He’s not an elite rim protector and I don’t really expect him to become one, but there’s no reason why he couldn’t be a serviceable one with attention to those areas. Very few serviceable rim protectors offer what he does on offense.

This also applies to rebounding, where he’s prone to just accepting being blocked out and allowing smaller players to keep him away from the basket. Can get caught watching the play at times. Adding strength will help, but motor doesn’t require strength.

EJ MAKES ‘EM PAY

If he’s not zipping dimes out of the post, EJ is a pretty crafty back-to-the-basket scorer. He differs from Bagley and Wiseman in the fact that he doesn’t try to one-step cram on guys, and his right hand is actually pretty reliable. Either hand, either block, high or low, he can make something happen, although he’s much more of an angular post up scorer than those bouncy, explosive guys. Lots of tricks in the bag.

Left and then right:

Right and then right some more:

Feels the defender on his right, calls for it with his left, goes left, power dribble, reverse. Like I said, he’s crafty.

IT’S UP TO HIM

EJ projects as a four in college and a stretch four in the NBA, but the work he puts in during the next year and a half will be critical to that transition being successful. As a playmaking, back-to-the-basket player, his appeal is undeniable. But who does he guard? Will he wilt against the explosive athletes on the horizon? How much effort will he put in on that side of the ball? How active will he be on the glass? Does he have to be paired with an exceptional athlete in the frontcourt on both ends of the floor to make his positives outweigh his negatives?

Is he a big wing with the ability to score around the rim, or is he a lean big guy that can drift outside and hit the occasional 15-25 footer? He’ll have to avoid falling in the cracks between those two worlds, and it’ll take some attention to technique and physique for him to stick in the NBA. For a player as intelligent and as gifted as Montgomery, I don’t doubt that he can get there.

________________________

Wanna contact the Dime Drop? Drop us one: dimedrop.mailbag@gmail.com.

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Twitter: @jkylemann

Fantastically Bad Player Comparisons & Where to Find Them

If you follow/watch/read about basketball at all, you are probably aware of how often players are compared to other players. It’s a rampant talking point for young prospects.

They’re especially ubiquitous when we talk about the NBA Draft, and think we obsess over them for a number of reasons. In terms of ‘how badly can a person do in one broadcast,’ Jalen Rose currently holds the record.

WHAT GOOD IS A COMPARISON?

Very often we compare because of what we want a player to be. We’re looking for the next guy to do something incredible; to take us on a ride. Usually this is dictated by the transcendent player of the time. As fans, this is a self serving quest, but we can’t help ourselves.

Was there a more irritating for this than the immediate post-Jordan era? Hell, this even went on during the Jordan era. We just didn’t want to be without the greatest player ever, and we got a bit clingy.

We also do it to help us have an idea of where a guy might fit. Pretty straight forward, but it gives us an idea of who we’d like to see on our team in the future. It’s fun to argue about.

Lastly, it’s sneakily competitive. On Reddit, on Twitter, everywhere: it’s a challenge to see who can most accurately project what a guy is going to be. It’s a ‘mine’s bigger than yours’ event in the basketball fan decathlon to see who can pull the most accurate comparison.

Comparing players comes with many pitfalls, and sometimes they can be gloriously terrible. If you’re going to make a comparison, you’re going to want to know some basic guidelines for what to avoid.

I just want to get the first one out of the way…

(HUGE GASP) …RACE

This is the most infamous cliché in basketball comparisons. Many people reading this are guilty of this offense, and that’s okay. I’ve done it myself.

It’s fairly obvious that the NBA is predominantly black. You’d also be well within your rights as a reasonable person to note that those few caucasian fellows aren’t in the dunk contest.

We whiteys are the flightless birds — the emus — of the basketball world. I say that mainly because if you bring the ball low enough, we bite. We might even shit on your shoes if you stay still long enough.

Another reason is sheer percentages. In the NBA, you’re reaching into other eras almost by necessity, just to have more options. As of 2016 (the latest number I could find), only 18.3% of the NBA was white.

Is it true that white guys tend to be either specialists (typically not rim protectors, am I right) or plodding brontosaurus-types that fill the end of the bench? It’s true. Look, we’re just happy to be here. Here, let us screen for you.

DOMINANT HAND

You see this most often in the fact that lefties remind people of lefties. My favorite of all time: Jay Bilas, who compared Justice Winslow to James Harden. One of the actual and in all reality best one-on-one scorers and playmakers of our time with an energy guy that can be a disruptive defensive presence and largely excels at getting to the basket and getting out in transition. That’s hardly fair to the whole story picture of Winslow’s game, but it’s a fair summary.

Sorry to bring this up, Bilas.

 

HYPE

It’s unfortunate for a player to have this happen, when they’re just beginning their career. This usually happens way too early for guys that have crazy athleticism ahead of their class (Seventh Woods, Andrew Wiggins, Ronnie Fields), and once the rest of the class catches up, you’ve got a good player getting labeled as a failure simply because he’s not what people expected.

A million and a half people have seen a video with this title, and you can bet that a guy like Malik Newman had his expectations for himself affected by this kind of comparison.

It’s a lot like a bad movie sequel. Gremlins 2 is a fine sequel, but mainly it fails at being the original, and people will fail to see the quality in the predecessor. In some ways it sets you up to fail. Also most people just didn’t get Gremlins 2. That’s the snottiest anyone’s (except Joe Dante, I guess) ever gotten about that movie.

ROYAL BLOOD

Marcus/Jeffrey Jordan, Kareem-Abdul Jabbar Jr., David Webber, Shawn Kemp Jr., Patrick Ewing Jr… these are guys with last names that need no explanation. The weight of a last name and a legacy can make a comparison unavoidable.

ASSUMING THERE’S AN EXACT MATCH

This is where the CompCloud got its motivation, if I’m being honest. You get into the weeds of dialing in a player’s contemporaries and you lose sight of the fact that they’re likely a hodge-podge of players they played with, played against or watched over the years. There may be no comparison. Thus it’s helpful – and at times more accurate – to address all the parts of their game by comparing them to pieces of several players as opposed to looking for the 1:1 comparison.

Just be smart out there, alright? Lord knows we don’t want to look like fools, discussing a game.

 

 

How Good is James Wiseman?

James Wiseman is from Nashville, Tennessee, but he’s currently developing under the tutelage of former NBA superstar and Nike figurehead Penny Hardaway in Memphis for Memphis East.

On a roster loaded with future D1 talent, Wiseman is clearly the centerpiece, and there are many that think he’s the centerpiece of a strong 2019 class. He currently sits as the top player at his position and the top player overall in 2019.

WISEMAN HAS SIZE, MAN (<— nice one Kyle)

Just being honest, the first few times I watched Wiseman in game action, I was judging his game under a false pretense: he’d been listed at 6’8″ on a couple sites and initially I was confused by the praise I’d read from people. For a 6’8″ guy, sure, he moved pretty well and looked like a fairly tenacious dude under the basket, but the ball skills I felt needed to be a bit higher to justify the love I was seeing. Then I took a closer look.

First of all: those measurements were wrong. Wiseman last measured at 6’10” in shoes, weighing about 210 pounds (although he appears to be up a bit from that) but he has a fairly impressive wingspan of 7’4″. This would put him in elite company in the NBA, in the top 15-20 guys, in fact. He’s thin, but not a spindly-built dude, and looks to have a frame that could carry more muscle, very much in the same way another former Kentucky player did: Anthony Davis. That comparison will come back, don’t worry.

He’s not lightning quick, but you can be assured that he’s quicker than the average 6’10” guy with a 7’4″ wingspan, and much more skilled. He’ll likely be able to play the five in college very effectively, but his life in the NBA would be as a four, if I had to bet.

HE IS BUT A CHILD

It’s really important to note, when you’re watching footage or talking about Wiseman’s future, to note how far along he is vs. how young he happens to be. He’s on the younger side of class at 16-years-old. Physically and mentally, at this age, it’s fairly remarkable how good Wiseman’s floor is, much less his ceiling.

DIFFERENT PATHS TO THE SAME PLACE

I mentioned the comparison to Anthony Davis, and it’s a reasonable one. While their paths were a bit different — Davis started as a mid-major guard prospect with solid ball skills and then grew nine inches — it seems like the end result will be similar. Wiseman is a guy that’s likely played around the rim for most of his life, already possessing a limited but effective set of one on one moves that mostly end with a left-handed baby hook or a (at least an attempted) dunk.

Davis came to college without having really polished these parts of his game, but had really come into his own as a weakside shot blocker and a consistent midrange threat. Wiseman has shown signs of both skills, and it’ll be interesting to see how he develops in that sense during his senior year of high school.

Jab-step, right hand to left hand, step back, jumper is something we saw often from Davis pre-NBA, and I think we could see Wiseman get there.

Davis, even at the end of his college career, was struggling to win physical position and relying on the strength of his opposite hand (result of growing up a guard) and his amazing reach. Even against an excellent college shot blocker like Gorgui Dieng, he’s able to get it off.

You can see here that Wiseman loves to power dribble with that left hand towards the right side of the basket and come back across the lane, to left side with his left hand. At the high school level, when you have the physical build that Wiseman has, you can see why this would be his bread and butter. It’s a fairly impossible move to stop.

The wide-footed post-up, the gather, full extension with that 7’4″ wingspan, soft left hand… bucket. That initial bump is also crucial, and you see him look for it every time. It creates the space that makes the shot so difficult to contest.

NOT CURRENTLY AMPHIBIOUS

Last week I pointed out how left-hand dependent Marvin Bagley happens to be, and at this point the same is true of Wiseman. James is different than Marvin in that respect, however, in the fact that Bagley just absolutely won’t go to his right hand unless Duke installs some sort of electric shock device in his jersey. Wiseman is willing to spin that direction, but it more often than not ends in this soft fall away jumper. This shot will have to evolve as he progresses, because you can see how slowly this transpires and how low the ball is shown as he spins.

It’s a shot he can make, but in all likelihood you’ll see this become less and less of a go-to move as he competes against better and better athletes. Over and over again I see footage of Wiseman fighting for position, and I love it. Definitely a kid who battles. Not prone to lethargic stretches of disappearing. Great at getting to his spots.

Running Wiseman off of his spots is an approach you could take, but: a) good luck doing it and b) his face-up game is progressing and becoming more and more of a problem.

DRIVE SAFE OUT THERE

Wiseman’s timing and footwork on defense are also a strong aspect of his game. You don’t see a ton of instances of him taking several steps to get enough extension for a block, leading to fouls. He’s quick. He sizes up the shot that’s coming and makes a move to take it out of the air and most importantly — keep it in play.

He even blocked this one with his left hand, when his right hand was significantly closer to the ball. Wiseman gets a lot of those ‘where the hell did that arm come from?’ types of blocks, and he has great hands.

He even blocked this one with his left hand, when his right hand was significantly closer to the ball.

TAX PAYING CITIZEN OF LOB CITY

Wiseman loves to try to tear the rim down with his dunks, and he would love for you to try and get in the way.

PROJECTING WISEMAN’S FUTURE

James has the chance to be a truly special college player, on both ends of the floor. While I don’t think he’s in the stratosphere of Davis or Nerlens Noel in terms of shot-blocking at Kentucky, he’s a notch below that, and only getting better. At the college level, you could easily see Wiseman projecting as an All-American-caliber player. At the pro level, Wiseman is almost certainly a four, with the potential to run as a five with smaller lineups.

If Wiseman were to reclassify and head to college next year, he’d be more than ready to contribute to a high-major program more or less immediately. That doesn’t currently seem to be the plan for him and his family, but it’s certainly a viable scenario in which he could succeed, in my opinion.

Needless to say, it’s going to be fascinating to see how brightly this kid’s flame burns as he prepares to enter the next phase of his basketball life, and I look forward to seeing it.

Deep Diving into Bagley’s Bag

Unless you’ve been pulling a David Khan and willfully turning a blind eye to talent, you’re most likely aware that the 2018 NBA Draft class is Peter O’Toole-loaded. This class is laden with multiple legitimate candidates to be multiple time all-stars, and a few of those with the potential to ascend to All-NBA level and possibly compete for an MVP.

In this series, I’m going to be taking a look at the upper echelon of the class, and breaking down who I perceive to be the top pick and attempt to dial in what we’ll likely see from them in the future.

The first whipper-snapper that I’d like to put under the microscope is Marvin Bagley III of Duke University.

Full transparency: I might have a basketball man-crush on this dude. It’s very possible that Bagley is the best player we’ve seen in college basketball since Anthony Davis.

Bagley choosing to be a Blue Devil was a case of the rich getting richer, because their frontcourt cupboard was hardly bare. They’d already signed Wendell Carter, a guy who was widely considered the best back to the basket scorer in the class, and another probable top-10 pick. He’s an extremely talented player that we’ll look into later.

That said, when you can snag a guy like Bagley, the rotation hardly matters, because his skillset spans wide across the spectrum of hoops gifts. He starts for every college roster in America and would likely start for several NBA teams right now, as a 19-year-old.

HE BIG

Bagley is 6’10” in shoes with a 7’0″ wingspan, and his agility/mobility really help him get the most out of that size. Wingspan-wise he’s not in the realm of Porzingis/The Brow/Giannis, and this’ll affect his game in some ways we’ll discuss in a bit. He weighs in at about 235 pounds and has a real fluidity to his gait. He glides up and down the floor effortlessly, and there’s no trace of the plodding motion you see in a lot of injury-prone bigs.

RELENTLESS PURSUIT

Other than tremendous ball skills for a guy his size, the first thing that jumps out at you is how tremendously active he is on both sides of the floor. This is a guy that refuses to be blocked out, and he’s got a real knack for tipping the ball to himself.

There are literally hundreds of instances like this one, where Bagley one, two or even three taps the ball to himself so that he can snag it. That’s a trait you see in the tippy-top elite rebounders. In this clip you can even see that this translates to bad entry passes: they can even be salvaged because of his awareness of where he is on the floor and his touch around the rim.

Again, here, Bagley refuses to let Theo Pinson get low on him and gets to a high percentage area in the lane to tap it to himself.

It’s also impressive how often Bagley sprints the floor, regardless of what’s happened on the previous play. In that sense he appears to be a pretty positive teammate. Watch the fluidity of his sprint.

It’s insane to think that, while Bagley is averaging 21.2 points-per-game on 13.6 attempts, a wildly efficient set of averages for a freshman at a high-major program like Duke, his rebounding might be his most translatable and effective skill. On top of that: this kid was a wicked fast second and third jump, and he typically knows if he’s missed. He also loves to tap in shots that he knows are coming off the rim.

NOT A RIGHT HAND MAN

If you want to criticize anything going on in Bagley’s Bag, you’d likely start here:

(Actually a sneaky good song.)

Unfortunately, it’s not applicable, because Bagley’s right-hand is a last resort. A lot of the time he actually seems to be avoiding it. If you force him to his right, his ability to finish radically changes. Definitely not an ‘over either shoulder’ type of guy that you often hear pros talk about, but he’s not without hope, because he does have a high basketball IQ and polished ball skills for a guy his size. However, at the moment, a lot of Bagley’s right handed shots going right come off like flat shot-putts, and his touch noticeably decreases when he goes that way.

It’s a correctable plight, and one that will definitely require attention as he faces longer wingspans at the next level. Bagley’s wingspan is not exceptional for his height, and this will force him to develop as a finisher around the rim.

NIT PICK & POP

At this point, we just really don’t have a credible sample size to conclude that Bagley is dangerous in a jump shooting position that isn’t squared up and set. He seldom takes those shots.

A lot of that could be due in part to the fact that no big in college basketball can stay in front of him. Even undersized hybrid 3/4s seem to struggle with his quickness, and if not that, his length. We’ll have to settle on the jury being out, here.

That said, for the activity that Bagley provides under the rim and the alarming efficiency that he plays with, his shot mechanics are strong. He already shoots the three better than the players he is frequently compared to.

YA BOI MARVIN ON DEFENSE

Duke at times this year has been uncharacteristically terrible on the defensive end, which is likely due to their inexperience and the frequency in which they’ve faced patient offensive teams that are aware of this. They’re currently 89th in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom, and it’s a common occurrence to see perimeter savvy teams take Duke late into the shot clock knowing that they’ll get lost on switches or break down in their communication.

Bagley falls into the mix here, as most freshmen do, but again, it’s hard to imagine him failing to improve in this area, considering his physical tools and his motor. Watch Chris Chiozza (a lightning fast senior guard for Florida) size Bagley up and fail to escape him.

Granted, that’s a weak take, and Chiozza is a small guard, but Bagley’s footspeed and quickness to the shot’s release point is exceptional. His ability to jump quickly compensates for some of his shortcomings as it pertains to freakish wingspan.

TO THINE OWN SELF BE TRUE

The most encouraging aspect of Bagley’s ceiling going forward is the fact that his development will not involve the trimming of daunting bad habits. This is a 19-year-old that’s stayed consistently in the top five in efficiency for an entire season against great competition. If you consider the baseline of his skills as they stand, it’s hard to imagine him not improving at finishing with his right hand or becoming a dangerous jump shooter in pick and rolls situations.

This kid has no real delusions about what he does well, and that’s something encouraging to see in a prospect. He can make threes, but you don’t see him floating around the perimeter. He can handle the ball, but you don’t see an inkling of ‘my turn’ or ‘Imma cook this fool’ that lead to turnovers.

MARVIN’S ROOM TO GROW

Bagley could be an All-NBA level talent. It would be surprising to me if he didn’t (barring injury, knock on anything even resembling wood… knock on Harvey Weinstein near a young actress if you have to) nab 5+ all-star appearances in his career. His touch around the rim, otherworldly ability to end possessions, keep them alive and his ceiling as a pick and pop shooter make him a fantastic option as a small-ball five in some lineups.

THE COMP CLOUD™️

SO WHO BAGS BAGLEY?

If you haven’t deducted this by now: I think Marvin Bagley should go #1 in the 2018 NBA Draft.

me if i'm an nba team owner: alright who are we drafting with the #1 pick
team GM: we're looking at [says someone other than marvin bagley]
me: you are fired

— J. Kyle Mann (@jkylemann) January 7, 2018

Sad Twitter promotion aside, here are the projected odds for the draft lottery at the NBA season’s halfway point (thanks to tankathon.com):

Bagley is an active ingredient in just about any formula listed here, but should the Suns find theirselves at the top, I think they’d be picking between two hometown guys in DeAndre Ayton (starring at Arizona) and, obviously, Bagley (from Phoenix). I plan on deep diving on Ayton soon (probably next), but the deciding factor between these two is consistency, in my view.

Bagley always shows up. He loves big stages. He goes hard all the time. He has that unmistakeable ‘I will destroy you and everyone you ever knew’ instinct. He is not prone to having sleepy halves or games. Is Ayton more offensively talented than Bagley? Possibly. Perhaps even probably. Ayton eclipses Bagley in some key areas, but those areas are moot if he continues to periodically let the spirit of Derrick Coleman possess him and become disinterested in playing hard.

(Imagine how much of this would happen with Devin Booker.)

So which do you bet on? Do you bet on DeAndre Ayton shedding those stretches of disinterest? It’s possible that he gets pissed and becomes one of the best bigs in the NBA. It’s also possible that he doesn’t. To me, it’s way less of a gamble to pair Bagley with Devin Booker and Josh Jackson and build your franchise for a bright future. He’s the safest bet in the draft and I think he should go #1.